IMD Predicts 106% Monsoon Surge

Weather Update: Mrityunjay Mohapatra (Director General of Meteorology), has stated that the month of June is likely to commence with heavy rainfall across the country.

Monsoon Updates: This year's monsoon season (June to September) in India is expected to be bountiful. The country is likely to receive 6% more rainfall than normal, totalling 106% of the long period average (LPA). A variation of ±4% is possible. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released a revised rainfall forecast on Tuesday. In April, the department had predicted 105% rainfall.

IMD Issues Revised Forecast

Mritunjay Mahapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD, stated on Tuesday that the month of June is expected to begin with heavy rainfall. The month may see 108% of the LPA, meaning over 87 cm of rainfall. According to the IMD, central India and the southern peninsula may experience above-normal rainfall (over 106%), while northwest India is expected to receive normal rainfall (92-108%). Northeast India, however, is predicted to receive below-normal rainfall (94%).

Above-Normal Rainfall Across the Country

According to the IMD, the states in India's monsoon core zone (MCZ) are likely to receive above-normal rainfall (106%). These states largely comprise agriculture-dependent regions, suggesting potential benefits for farmers. These states include Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Maharashtra, and surrounding areas.

Relief for Farmers

Mahapatra stated that the above-normal rainfall will bring relief to farmers. He noted that farmers begin sowing Kharif crops in June. The above-average rainfall in June is expected to reduce the intensity of heatwaves. However, the higher rainfall may lead to increased humidity during the day, making the heat feel more intense for the general public.

Understanding the Long Period Average (LPA)

The IMD determined the LPA for the southwest monsoon based on rainfall data from 1971-2020. This average is 87 cm (870 mm). Rainfall exceeding 87 cm is considered above normal, while less is considered below normal.

Heavy Rainfall Possible in Several States

According to the IMD, a low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal is intensifying, strengthening the southwest monsoon. Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana may experience heavy rainfall in the next 6-7 days. From 28-30 May, extremely heavy rainfall with gusty winds is possible in parts of Kerala, south Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. Rainfall will continue over Konkan & Goa, central Maharashtra, and Gujarat.

Impact of Western Disturbances

A new western disturbance is expected to become active over north India from 29 May. This may lead to strong winds with thunderstorms and rain in the Himalayan region, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, and Uttar Pradesh. Hailstorms are also possible in Himachal Pradesh. Eastern states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal will continue to experience thunderstorms and rain for the next few days.