Second Consecutive Interest Rate Cut
The RBI’s MPC has reduced the repo rate by 0.25 percent for the second consecutive time. Following the RBI’s announcement of the repo rate cut, interest rates on home loans, personal loans, deposits, and vehicle loans are expected to decrease. Experts had anticipated this RBI decision. Earlier in February, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its first rate cut since May 2020 amidst an economic slowdown.
GDP Growth Rate Expected at 6.5 Percent
The RBI Governor stated that the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 6.5 percent this year. He added that this is higher than the 9.2 percent growth rate seen last year. Malhotra also mentioned that the outlook for the agricultural sector remains bright in the current year due to healthy reservoir levels and robust crop production. According to the RBI, inflation is likely to remain at 4.8 percent in the current fiscal year. However, a 10 basis point increase has been added to the inflation for the fourth quarter, raising it from 4.4 percent to 4.5 percent.
Trump Tariffs Could Impact Merchandise Growth
The RBI Governor acknowledged that tariffs are expected to impact merchandise exports. He also stated that India’s GDP is growing at a rate of 6.5 percent in fiscal year 26. Inflation is estimated at 4 percent. However, the central bank’s rate-setting body cannot remain complacent following the announcement of widespread tariffs by US President Donald Trump. Trump has announced a 26 percent reciprocal tariff rate on India, effective from April 9, which could further increase inflationary pressure.